Julian Edlow gives his best bet on DraftKings Sportsbook for the win total on Oklahoma State.
I have been hyping up the Oklahoma State Cowboys for weeks, which you know if you watch any of our programing on DraftKings Network. The Cowboys have been a popular bet on DraftKings Sportsbook when it comes to their win total, so much so that the number has been on the move. Let’s breakdown this Big 12 contender.
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Oklahoma State Cowboys OVER 7.5 Wins (-150) — 4-units
I was giving this bet out on air on our show “The Sweat” back in June when it aired on DKN, so if you happened to tune in there for the final couple of shows, you’re fortunate enough to have this play at 7.5 wins. I have the Cowboys OVER 7.5 in what averages out to about -150, and if we ever see an alternate total on DraftKings Sportsbook, I’d be comfortable playing it at anything -175 or better. Obviously, every half-win is significant in a 12-game schedule, but I’m confident enough in OKST to also recommend an over eight wins flat if you’re still looking to play it and don’t want to lay too much juice (currently about -120).
As for why I like the Cowboys this season, we’re looking at a very experienced roster that’s well coached and plays a very manageable schedule. A popular question in college football is what the betting impact will be from all the conference realignment? While the SEC and Big Ten got even more competitive, the Big 12 took a step back with Texas and Oklahoma bowing out. I think that provides an advantage to the teams that are now in the top tier of the conference, and is probably why we’re seeing schools like Utah (coming over from the PAC-12), Kansas State and Oklahoma State take money.
As of July 17 on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cowboys have taken 7% of the bets for 12% of the handle to win the conference, while a whopping 99% of bets and handle are both on the over for the win total.
After a shaky 2-2 start last season, the Cowboys finished the regular season strong, ripping off seven wins in their final eight regular season games for a 9-3 record. They went on to lose to Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game (no longer an issue), and beat Texas A&M in a Bowl Game.
Oklahoma State is currently priced as an underdog twice this season on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the games coming in consecutive weeks. It’s by far the toughest part of the schedule for the Cowboys, priced as slight one-point home dogs to Utah in Week 4, and then 5.5-point dogs at K-State in Week 5. That said, OKST is taking sharp money at home against Utah — just 19% of the bets but for 49% of the money, per VSiN’s betting splits. They are also taking more money in the matchup in Manhattan, with 65% of the bets for 72% of the handle (splits as of July 17). It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Cowboys flip to a favorite at home against the Utes, giving them the potential to go off as a favorite 11 times this season.
Oklahoma State returns 19 starters in 2024, and should be able to carry some of that momentum to close 2023 into a soft start this season (South Dakota State, Arkansas and Tulsa are the first three games).
Quarterback Alan Bowman will need to cut down on his turnovers, but returns for a seventh season of college football, so he certainly has experience on his side. Bowman returns his top-two receivers from 2023, and more importantly, the entire offensive line is back after allowing just 13 sacks last season. Phil Steele has the Cowboys offensive line ranked fourth in the entire country entering the season.
Ollie Gordon ran for 1,776 yards and 21 touchdowns last season (another 330 yards as a receiver), and is one of the most lethal offensive talents returning to college football. Gordon did run into some trouble with the law this summer, but the program has already said he will be punished internally, and it will not include any suspension.
Defense in the Big 12 has always been suspect, but Mike Gundy returns nine of his starters. I’d expect some improvement on that side of the ball in Gundy’s 20th season leading the program.
Steele has the Cowboys ranked 15th in his preseason poll, while other outlets like Athlon and Lindy’s have them ranked 19th and 12th in the nation, respectively (Lindy’s actually has OKST winning the Big 12). Oklahoma State has the feel of a 9-10 win team this season, and a potential playoff berth is on the table.
Bet at a top rated Sportsbook!
View the latest odds and bet online legally at a top rated Sportsbook! Place a bet now at DraftKings Sportsbook!*
*Odds and lines are for illustrative purposes only.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
